Note: Sunday’s game from London on ESPN+ will be featured in a column Saturday evening, and MNF involving the Packers and Bills will be featured Sunday afternoon.
With Week eight upon us, we have almost reached the halfway point of the 2022 NFL season. There are quite a few intriguing games and close spreads, so what does this all imply from a betting viewpoint? And what are the greatest plays to aid you make intelligent wagering choices?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy specialist Eric Karabell, fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz supply their insight into the games with suggestions and picks.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Giants-Seahawks (-three, 44.five) is the only matchup involving two teams with winning records this week. Despite becoming six-1 ATS and SU, the Giants are once again an underdog, acquiring 3 points from four-three Seattle. Who do you like in this matchup?
Fortenbaugh: I’m laying the three with Seattle. New York desires respect? Go lay the wood to somebody. Seriously. All this complaining about a lack of respect when you hit the road and barely eked by Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Seattle crushed the Chargers in Los Angeles. That’s how you get respect. Take note that the Giants are playing their third road game in 4 weeks, with the 1st of these games taking spot in London and the final taking spot in Seattle. That’s a major ask.
Schatz: What I like in this matchup is more than 44.five. Seattle is third in offensive DVOA, and Geno Smith does not appear to be going away, as he had 1 of his greatest games in Week 7. The Giants are now seventh in offensive DVOA and third more than the final 4 weeks. Meanwhile, these defenses rank 19th and 29th in DVOA, respectively.
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Fulghum: OK, New York. You have my focus. I’ll take the points with the Giants in this spot. The current travel the final 4 weeks for the G-Men is a concern (London, New York, Jacksonville, Seattle), but this group just keeps winning and beating industry expectation. The Seahawks are also overachieving, but their offensive ceiling may possibly be capped in this game. Wide receiver DK Metcalf was carted off the field final week. Tyler Lockett is also dealing with a nagging hamstring injury. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offensive ceiling is raised in a matchup against 1 of the worst defenses in the league. Seattle is 29th in the NFL in total yards and rushing yards permitted per game. The Seahawks are enabling 26.six PPG to opposing offenses, which is the fifth-highest quantity in the league. Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley’s rushing capability must shorten this game and maintain at a low-scoring, tight affair — the form of game atmosphere in which the Giants have thrived this season. Giants +three.
Snellings: I’ll take the Giants and the points. Yes, they maintain winning close games, but considering the fact that they are the ones essentially acquiring the points, that MO is fine by me. The Seahawks have played nicely, but with each of their star wide receivers ailing they are a bit weakened. But, far more than that, the Giants’ approach of operating the ball (with each Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones) and playing timely defense is proving to be a winning 1, and 1 that regularly keeps them in games with probabilities to win, late. I’ll take that.
Marks: The six-1 Giants are underdogs once again, and I enjoy it. I’ll maintain taking the points! Big Blue is three- on the road. Brian Daboll is acquiring the most out of his offense, Wan’Dale Robinson is creating fantastic chemistry with Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley is operating for days, and Jones has been Superman on third down. Wink Martindale’s defense schemes against Geno Smith will be the important to winning, so give me Wink!
Moody: I’m backing the Giants at +three, even on the road. Jones has exceeded expectations of bettors for a Giants group lacking getting playmakers and who has relied heavily on Barkley and the operating game. New York ranks second in the league with 173.four rushing yards per game. Jones has also engineered 5 game-winning drives. With a six-1 record against the spread, the Giants are undefeated on the road. The Seahawks will most probably be devoid of receiver DK Metcalf. The Seattle passing game can be disrupted by Martindale’s heavy emphasis on blitzes. As a favourite, the Seahawks have not fared nicely. Over its final nine games when favored, Seattle is three-six against the spread.
Doug Kezirian says the Patriots will take it to the Jets and keep away from back-to-back defeats.
The New England Patriots (-two.five, 40.five) are favored for the 21st consecutive time more than the New York Jets, this time as a two.five-point favourite on the road. Do you like the Patriots to rebound off their negative loss to Chicago or will the Jets continue their winning techniques?
Schatz: My numbers lean Jets in this game, but I’m essentially leaning toward the Patriots. These two teams have been extremely close collectively this season in our DVOA ratings. However, the Patriots spread the ball about, eliminating 1 of the Jets’ leading strengths (Sauce Gardner eliminating the WR1). And Zach Wilson is not specifically mobile, eliminating 1 of the Patriots’ key defensive weaknesses. The Jets do have a specific teams benefit right here, but offense and defense are extremely close, and I believe Bill Belichick coaching them up just after a loss offers the Patriots a slight edge.
Moody: Belichick knows how to get his group back on track. New England’s offense struggled final week and will not appear worse than they did against the Bears. Coming off Monday Night Football, New England is six-1 against the spread in its final seven Sunday games. In this game, I’m backing the Patriots to cover the spread, as I believe they will get back on track. It’s no secret that the Jets’ defense is formidable, ranking 10th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but I count on New England to rise to the challenge. In seven of their final ten games against the Jets, the Patriots have covered the spread. The Jets are two-7 against the spread in their final nine games against the AFC East.
What are the 3 most vital points that our analytics say?
Walder: I’ll give you 3 requires on sides by way of FPI.
Washington Commanders (+three) at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, four:25 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
FPI prediction: Commanders by 1.1
If we appear at the anticipated points added per play prices for these two teams we see a remarkably equivalent image. The Commanders are two ranks greater than the Colts on offense and on defense. So proper away, that is a sign that a complete field purpose is also a great deal, simply because house-field benefit is not worth that a great deal even if the two teams are identical.
But I’m not shocked FPI likes the Commanders even far more than that, simply because it really is not fond of backup quarterbacks devoid of a track record like Sam Ehlinger. Of course, Washington is beginning a backup also, but at least we’ve observed Taylor Heinicke, and he is not terrible.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9.five)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
FPI prediction: Cowboys by 12.9
There’s an understandable recency aspect right here causing a distinction, I believe, simply because Justin Fields and the Bears have played a great deal greater in their final two games. But FPI is going to require to see far more to be swayed. Fields nonetheless has a 37.three QBR — 27th in the NFL — and is going against an superb Dallas defense. FPI thinks the Cowboys will win major.
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.five) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
FPI prediction: Raiders by three.two
FPI genuinely only has two major calls this week — the 1st two listed — but we’ll throw this in right here, also. The model just loves the Raiders. They could be two-four, but the Raiders have the fourth-most effective offense in the league. Fourth! While the defense is what has held the Raiders back, we’ll repeat what we frequently do right here — previous offense is far more predictive offense than previous defense is of future defense.
What is your favourite bet for Sunday?
Fortenbaugh: Raiders -1.five in New Orleans. I believe this group is prepared to go on a run. They’re two-four but function a +13 point differential. To place that into viewpoint, the Giants are six-1 with a +20 point differential. The Raiders are a great deal greater than their record indicates, and they have the following games coming up: at New Orleans, at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, at Denver. You can at the moment bet the Raiders more than eight wins and to make the playoffs at +280, two wagers I created earlier this week. As for this specific game, the Saints are a mess on each sides of the ball, and Andy Dalton is beginning at quarterback. Case closed.
Schatz: Let’s go with the Commanders +three at Indianapolis. The Colts have been the worst offense in the league by DVOA and I cannot picture Sam Ehlinger is going to turn that about. Even if the Colts can get Jonathan Taylor going, Washington is fourth in run defense DVOA this season. And is Heinicke genuinely a step down from Carson Wentz? He may possibly be a step up. This line must be a choose ’em, and I’ll happily take the 3 points.
Fulghum: Lions-Dolphins (more than 51.five) must be a track meet at Ford Field. I’m going more than the total of 51.five. Way more than. Lions house games this season have averaged 76.three combined PPG. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle indoors on a rapidly track? Yes, please. After becoming manhandled by the Cowboys defense on the road final week, the Lions offense gets a a great deal far more favorable spot to score points at house against a vastly inferior Miami defense.
Karabell: Miami Dolphins -three.five more than Lions. Yeah, the Lions scored myriad points the 1st handful of games this season, and they did so at house, but this offense has scored nary a touchdown the previous two games. Jared Goff appears terrible once again. D’Andre Swift final played in Week three and, most importantly, the defense is 1 of the worst in the sport. The Dolphins will score. It’s tough to count on the Lions will.
Snellings: Arizona Cardinals +three.five more than Vikings. The Cardinals, to me, have felt like they had been a step out of sink all season … till final week. When DeAndre Hopkins returned, all of a sudden I began seeing hints of the group that led the NFC West most of final season. Now Hopkins has a game beneath his belt, newcomer Robbie Anderson must be acclimated, and it really is achievable that James Conner and/or Darrel Williams could be back to supplement the run game about Eno Benjamin. I believe the Cardinals are prepared to commence playing a great deal greater ball, beginning this weekend.
Marks: Eagles -six.five in 1st half vs. Steelers. The Eagles are coming off a bye week, and are rested and prepared to choose up exactly where they left off. They added a different piece to their defense by trading for Robert Quinn, which only tends to make their pass rush even greater. The Eagles have not trailed at the half but this season and have been up by an typical of 13 points at halftime. AJ Brown will be facing press coverage and must have a monster day. The Steelers will be functioning on a quick operate week just after losing a tough-fought battle with the Dolphins on Monday evening.
What is your favourite player prop?
Fulghum: Tyreek Hill more than 87.five getting yards (-127). I enjoy this game to go more than the total. It’s a tremendous matchup for a player in Hill who is matchup-proof. Hill is averaging 11.four targets and 110.four yards per game this season. In this game atmosphere, it really is extremely affordable to count on Hill to match or exceed these numbers.
Karabell: Derrick Henry more than 98.five rushing yards (-137). Henry has rushed for far more than one hundred yards in 3 consecutive games, averaging 27 rushes per game, and the Texans boast the worst rushing defense in the sport, permitting 164.7 rushing yards per game. Henry did not get to face the Texans final season, but the final time he did was the final week of the 2020 season, and all he did was rumble for 250 yards. He’s going for a buck fifty right here.
Marks: Jalen Hurts more than 226.five passing yards (-115). The Eagles offense, nicely-rested off a bye week, must manhandle a Steelers secondary that plays a lot of press coverage (which is not going to operate vs. A.J. Brown). Pittsburgh has permitted the third-most passing yards to opposing QBs and the most getting yards to WRs this season.
Moody: A.J. Brown more than 66.five getting yards. Brown has a fantastic matchup against the Steelers secondary. Pittsburgh’s defense is enabling 275.four passing yards per game this season and enables the most getting yards per game (209.six) to wide receivers. Brown is averaging eight.eight targets and 83.eight getting yards per game. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had monster games against the Steelers final week. There’s a fantastic opportunity Brown will have 1 also.