Two of the a lot more intriguing Week 1 matchups in the NFL involve quarterbacks facing their old teams, such as Russell Wilson’s stop by to the Seattle Seahawks on Monday evening (eight:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+).
Nine teams will have a new starter beneath center this season, and how these QBs match in will be one particular of the most compelling storylines of the season.
Wilson spent his 1st ten years in Seattle prior to becoming traded to the Denver Broncos on March eight in one particular of the most significant bargains in NFL history.
Baker Mayfield played only 4 seasons in Cleveland, but they had been eventful. He led the Browns to their 1st playoff victory in 26 years in 2020, prior to falling out of favor in Cleveland final season. Mayfield was traded on July six to the Panthers, who host the Browns on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
There was some drama added to Mayfield’s reunion game when it was reported how badly he wanted to beat the Browns.
Not all of the QB adjust was primarily based on somebody switching teams. Trey Lance’s ascension to San Francisco 49ers starter was announced when it appeared Jimmy Garoppolo would be traded, but Garoppolo ended up staying in San Francisco, and he will be Lance’s backup.
NFL Nation reporters break down the floors and ceilings of the quarterbacks in new roles, or new cities, and ESPN NFL fantasy analyst Mike Clay gives a statistical projection for the season.
The QB switch: Marcus Mariota replaces Matt Ryan
What prompted the adjust: The Falcons had been pursuing Deshaun Watson, who was facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate conduct in the course of massage sessions. During that course of action, Atlanta permitted Ryan to pursue possible trade partners, and Ryan felt comfy with the Colts. When Houston traded Watson to Cleveland, the Falcons then dealt Ryan to Indianapolis. The similar day, the Falcons signed Mariota, who played beneath Atlanta coach Arthur Smith when Smith was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee. In this year’s draft, the group also chosen rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder in the third round.
What’s Mariota’s ceiling: The most effective-case situation for the Falcons is Mariota rediscovers what produced him the No. two all round choose in the 2015 draft and the quarterback who threw for 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2016. If Atlanta can have an enhanced version of what Mariota was with the Titans, he could have a possibility to be the extended-term starter, providing the Falcons a lot more flexibility in the 2023 draft.
Mariota’s floor: Mariota’s accuracy was an challenge in Tennessee — he’s a profession 62.eight% passer — and he was sooner or later benched in 2019 in favor of Ryan Tannehill. If Mariota has the similar precision challenges in Atlanta, he could shed his job to Ridder. The floor for the Falcons: Neither Mariota nor Ridder appears like the medium- or extended-term quarterback answer, and that sends the group into the 2023 offseason desperate for a quarterback. — Michael Rothstein
Clay’s projection for Mariota: two,123 yards, ten TDs, 7 INTs
The QB switch: Baker Mayfield replaces Sam Darnold
What prompted the adjust: Darnold was four-7 and one particular of the lowest-rated quarterbacks in the NFL in 2021, so the Panthers went soon after Deshaun Watson. After the Texans traded Watson to the Browns, the Panthers drafted Matt Corral. When it was apparent Corral was a project, Carolina traded for Mayfield due to the fact Cleveland paid the majority of his 2022 salary.
What’s Mayfield’s ceiling: High if Carolina gets the 2020 version of Mayfield, 11-five at Cleveland with a playoff win, and not the 2021 version who went six-eight although dealing with an injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder. If operating back Christian McCaffrey can remain healthier, Mayfield has a possibility to have a robust season and get a significant, extended-term contract.
Mayfield’s floor: Pretty low if he begins slow, but he will not have to be concerned about becoming on a brief leash. Darnold suffered a higher left ankle sprain and was place on injured reserve, which means he’ll have to miss at least 4 weeks. Corral suffered a Lisfranc tear in his left foot and was place on season-ending IR. That leaves PJ Walker as Mayfield’s backup. –– David Newton
Clay’s projection for Mayfield: four,005 yards, 20 TDs, 16 INTs
The QB switch: Deshaun Watson replaces Baker Mayfield
What prompted the adjust: After injuring his non-throwing shoulder in Week two, Mayfield was under no circumstances the similar final season, and the Browns completed eight-9. With a roster prepared to contend for a Super Bowl, the Browns went all-in on Watson, who was facing 22 lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate conduct in the course of massage sessions.
What’s Watson’s ceiling: When Watson was final on the field in 2020, he performed like a top rated-5 QB. To regain that level, Watson will have a lot of rust to shake off soon after sitting out final season and serving an 11-game suspension to start off this season. Jacoby Brissett will commence the season as the starter, and although he has been a backup a lot of his profession, he has a 14-23 record as a starter. His most effective season was in 2019 with the Indianapolis Colts soon after Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement. Brissett passed for two,942 yards and 18 touchdowns with six interceptions that season.
Watson’s floor: Watson has under no circumstances completed outdoors the top rated 15 in QBR. Even soon after missing so a lot time, it really is tough to see Watson not becoming in the top rated half of passers in the league when he does return. — Jake Trotter
Clay’s projection for Watson: 1,386 yards, 9 TDs, four INTs | Brissett: two,117 yards, 12 TDs, six INTs
Denver Broncos
The QB switch: Russell Wilson replaces Teddy Bridgewater/Drew Lock
What prompted the adjust: The Broncos have missed the playoffs for six consecutive years — considering the fact that winning Super Bowl 50 — and have not averaged a lot more than 21 points per game in any of the previous 5 seasons. So when the Seahawks told the Broncos that Wilson was readily available, Broncos basic manager George Paton pounced with a huge package of players and draft picks, such as two 1st- and two second-round picks. And the Broncos swiftly moved to lock Wilson up extended term with a 5-year extension worth $245 million, such as $165 million assured, sources say.
What’s Wilson’s ceiling: If the Broncos can uncover their timing swiftly this season with a 1st-year head coach in Nathaniel Hackett, the ceiling is a Pro Bowl-caliber year with Wilson throwing for a lot more yards, touchdowns and generating a lot more significant plays than anybody in Denver considering the fact that Peyton Manning in 2014.
Wilson’s floor: Because of the Broncos’ woes on offense in current years, it could possibly nevertheless be a season in which Wilson throws for a lot more yards and touchdowns than anyone in Denver considering the fact that a healthier Manning. But if points do not go properly, it could be due to the fact the Broncos did not guard Wilson properly adequate, and he did not do his element to get the ball out faster when he had the possibility. –– Jeff Legwold
Clay’s projection for Wilson: four,081 yards, 30 TDs, ten INTs
The QB switch: Matt Ryan replaces Carson Wentz
What prompted the adjust: The Colts’ passing game became heavily restricted by the coaching staff’s lack of trust in Wentz late in the 2021 season. The Colts adopted mainly a energy-run offense behind operating back Jonathan Taylor, but they decided they required a lot more from their passing game. The Colts had been 26th in passing yards final season.
What’s Ryan’s ceiling: Ryan could inject a lot more significant plays into the offense with his potential to throw to receivers with timing, enabling a lot more yards soon after the catch. His timing is also a superior match for Colts coach Frank Reich’s offense, which emphasizes timing and rhythmic throws.
Ryan’s floor: At minimum, Ryan offers the Colts a a lot more effective passing game, provided his profession numbers in completion percentage and yards per try, to say absolutely nothing of the enhanced talent about him. Ryan is also a lot more apt to make use of checkdown throws to his operating backs. It’s under no circumstances a poor notion to get the ball into the hands of Taylor and Nyheim Hines in space. –– Stephen Holder
Clay’s projection for Ryan: three,878 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs
The QB switch: Mitch Trubisky replaces Ben Roethlisberger
What prompted the adjust: Roethlisberger retired, officially starting a new era in Pittsburgh. The group acquired Trubisky via free of charge agency and drafted Kenny Pickett in the 1st round, but the veteran held the edge on the rookie all through camp. Still, even although Trubisky initially won the beginning job — he was listed as the starter on the depth chart and also named one particular of the captains on Monday — Pickett will be nipping at his heels via the typical season.
What’s Trubisky’s ceiling: Even if he performs properly for the Steelers in 2022 and showcases his mobility and arm, Trubisky is not the extended-term answer in Pittsburgh. Pickett is the future, and Trubisky’s most effective hope is top the group to the playoffs and working with that to springboard to a different spot — equivalent to Kurt Warner’s year with the N.Y. Giants soon after the organization drafted Eli Manning.
Trubisky’s floor: Both Trubisky and Pickett have somewhat higher floors — that is what drew the Steelers to every quarterback in the offseason. The most significant aspect in figuring out their floors this year is the offensive line play. The quarterbacks will go as the line goes, and if they can not get time to throw or area to perform, the floor gets a lot decrease. — Brooke Pryor
Clay’s projection for: Trubisky: two,007 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs | Pickett: two,135 yards, 11 TDs, eight INTs
The QB switch: Trey Lance replaces Jimmy Garoppolo
What prompted the adjust: Garoppolo’s inability to remain healthier — he missed 23 games more than 3 seasons — spurred the Niners to trade up to pick Lance with the No. three all round choose in 2021. After letting Lance sit for a year behind Garoppolo, the Niners are prepared to see what their handpicked franchise quarterback can do. But in a move that shocked all involved, the Niners held on to Garoppolo, who will now be Lance’s backup.
What’s Lance’s ceiling: Lance’s physical capabilities (robust arm, rapidly legs) have drawn Josh Allen comparisons from teammates such as tight finish George Kittle. But a lot more than that, the Niners think in Lance’s potential to course of action information and facts and get via progressions swiftly. If Lance can enhance at a equivalent price to Allen, the Niners think they could have the franchise quarterback they’ve longed for considering the fact that the days of Steve Young.
Lance’s floor: Like Allen, who played collegiately at Wyoming, Lance also comes with some queries about accuracy and the level of college competitors (Lance played at North Dakota State). For instance, Lance’s completion percentage will most likely be a lot decrease than Garoppolo’s, but the 49ers hope that is offset by a lot more significant plays down the field and his operating potential. Because of the unknowns, Lance’s ceiling and floor come with considerable variance. –– Nick Wagoner
Clay’s projection for Lance: three,506 yards, 22 TDs, 12 INTs, 517 yards rushing, four rushing TDs
Seattle Seahawks
The QB switch: Geno Smith/Drew Lock replace Russell Wilson
What prompted the adjust: The Seahawks sent Wilson to the Broncos in March in one particular of the most significant trades in NFL history, the outcome of the quarterback wanting out and the organization’s wariness about how his game will continue to age. Seattle acquired Drew Lock as element of the return package, then did not draft a quarterback in April, setting up a two-man competitors that the 31-year-old Smith won.
What’s Smith’s ceiling: The Seahawks hope Smith can be an helpful game manager who avoids blunders and lets their robust run game do most of the heavy lifting. It’s tough to count on a lot beyond that provided that he has a 13-21 profession record as a starter and hasn’t been a complete-time QB1 considering the fact that 2014.
What’s Smith’s floor: The case to start off Lock argues that, as the younger and a lot more talented player, he has the greater ceiling. But coach Pete Carroll is going with Smith (at least for now) due to the fact in his view, the ten-year veteran has demonstrated a stronger grasp of the offense and the potential to guard the football, which suggests he has the greater floor. Smith played properly adequate to hold the Seahawks in the 1st two games that he began final year, narrow losses to the Steelers and Saints. He was terrific in his third and final start off, a blowout win more than Jacksonville. — Brady Henderson
Clay’s projection for: Smith: two,481 yards, 12 TDs, 7 INTs | Lock: 1,740 yards, 9 TDs, six INTs
The QB switch: Carson Wentz replaces Taylor Heinicke
What prompted the adjust: Since the 2018 season, Washington has began ten distinct quarterbacks and owns the NFL’s worst total QBR at 36.7. The Commanders take into consideration Heinicke a higher-finish backup he’s an fantastic competitor but is smaller sized and lacks optimal arm strength. Also, devoid of a winning season considering the fact that 2016, the Commanders required to upgrade.
What’s Wentz’s ceiling: A handful of years ago, his ceiling was NFL MVP. Injuries and inconsistent play have lowered the ceiling. His talent, plus the surrounding ability players, can make him a top rated-half quarterback who has some games in which he resembles a top rated-ten passer and other people in which he’ll struggle. Washington hasn’t had a QB like that considering the fact that Kirk Cousins.
Wentz’s floor: Probably bottom ten he ranked ninth in total QBR final year (54.7) but was benched in 2020. While the talent is superior, he requires a superior O-line so his tendency to hold the ball also extended does not get him in problems, and his accuracy becomes an challenge beneath duress. — John Keim
Clay’s projection for Wentz: three,760 yards, 24 TDs, ten INTs
