NFL betting notes – One group can beat their preseason win total in Week eight

For the initial time in his Hall of Fame profession, Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog. Rodgers had gone 234 straight begins to start his profession with no becoming a double-digit underdog, the longest streak to start a profession in the Super Bowl era (like playoffs).

Early in the week, it appeared that Rodgers and Tom Brady would be the underdogs in the similar week for just the fourth time ever. However, Wednesday evening, the line flipped exactly where Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now favored more than Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. Brady is 11-1 ATS as a property underdog, though Jackson is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog.

Two coaches who have had terrific achievement as underdogs are Brian Daboll and Kliff Kingsbury. Daboll has joined Bill Cowher as the only coaches in the Super Bowl era to win every single of their initial 5 profession games as underdog. Meanwhile, Kingsbury’s Arizona Cardinals have won eight straight games outright as a road underdog, the longest streak by any group in the Super Bowl era. Both appear to continue these streaks this week.

The five-two New York Jets are also underdogs for the 21st straight matchup against the New England Patriots. The Jets can be the initial group to go more than their win total (five.five) with a victory on Sunday. The Jets are the initial group in the Super Bowl era with a winning percentage of at least .700 in Week eight or later to be a property underdog against a group with a losing record though beginning its key quarterback.

In basic, underdogs have covered at a 59% price this season, the highest more than or beneath percentage by means of seven weeks considering the fact that 1994. Teams that are underdogs by at least 4 points are 21-34-1 outright, the most effective winning percentage by means of Week 7 considering the fact that 1983.

Season notes:

• Underdogs: 59-44-three (.573)

• Unders: 63-44-1 (.589)

• Best teams ATS: Falcons and Giants (six-1)

• Worst teams ATS: Buccaneers, Packers, Saints, Jaguars, Broncos and Panthers (all two-five)

• Best more than teams: Raiders (four-1-1) followed by Browns and Saints (each five-two)

• Best beneath teams: Colts, Buccaneers and Broncos (all five-two)

Baltimore Ravens (-1.five) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Thursday at eight:15 ET

• Tom Brady is playing his 187th property game like playoffs. This would be just the 13th time he will be a property underdog, and the initial considering the fact that 2020. He is 11-1 ATS and 9-three outright as a property underdog. The only ATS loss came back in 2005 (+four vs Indianapolis, lost by 19). Over the previous 15 seasons, Brady is five- ATS and four-1 outright as a property dog. His 11-1 ATS record as a property underdog is second-most effective of any QB in the Super Bowl era with at least ten games in that part (Ken Stabler: 9–1 ATS).

• Tom Brady is 13-two ATS following losing as at least a seven-point favored in his earlier game. However, final week’s loss in Carolina is one particular of the two ATS losses. Tampa Bay enters this week as the initial group considering the fact that 2017 Kansas City to shed two straight games, each as at least a nine-point favored.

• Tampa Bay is -three ATS at property this season, and it is -three ATS following an outright loss.

• Tampa Bay is -five ATS in its previous 5 games. That matches the longest single-season common-season ATS losing streak of Brady’s profession (5 straight in 2002). Brady lost nine straight games ATS spanning the 2007-09 seasons like playoffs.

• Lamar Jackson is 17-eight-two ATS in his profession on the road.

• Lamar Jackson is eight-1-1 ATS when the line is in between +three and -three.

• Tom Brady is -three ATS on Thursday Night Football games with Tampa Bay, all as a favored.

• Tampa Bay games are six-1 to the beneath, tied with Denver and Indianapolis for the highest beneath percentage in the league.

• Thursday evening unders are five-two this season and 30-20 more than the final 4 seasons. Prime-time game unders are 14-eight this season and 102-74-three more than the final 4 seasons (.580).

• Favorites are -two ATS in London games this season (18-14 ATS all-time).

• Jacksonville has lost six straight games outright as a favored. That is tied for the seventh-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Jacksonville is favored in back-to-back games for the initial time considering the fact that Weeks six-9 of 2012. Jacksonville is two-11 outright and ATS in its previous 13 games as a favored.

• Jacksonville is -four ATS in its previous 4 games.

• Denver games are six-1 to the beneath, tied with Tampa Bay and Indianapolis for the highest beneath percentage in the league. Denver games have gone beneath by an typical of 12.six points per game, the highest margin in the league.

New England Patriots (-1.five) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET

• This would be the 21st consecutive meeting in which New England is favored more than New York, the longest active streak in the league. During New England’s 20-game favored streak, the line has never ever been shorter than two.five.

• New York (five-two) can go more than its win total (five.five) with a victory. It would be the earliest a group has clinched a win total considering the fact that 2013 according to SportsOddsHistory.com (Kansas City clinched more than 7.five wins in Week eight).

• New York is the sixth group in the Super Bowl era with a winning percentage of at least .700 in Week eight or later to be a property underdog against a group with a losing record. Each of the earlier 5 situations, these teams had been beginning their backup quarterbacks.

• New York has covered 4 straight games for the initial time considering the fact that 2017. New York has not covered 5 straight games in a single season considering the fact that 2010. Its existing 4-game streak of winning and covering is its longest streak considering the fact that 2010.

• New York is five-1 ATS when the line is in between +three and -three beneath Robert Saleh.

• New York is four- ATS against teams with losing records this season.

• New England has covered 3 straight meetings and seven of the previous nine meetings.

• New England is 12-three ATS following losing the earlier game as at least a seven-point favored beneath Bill Belichick.

• Miami is -four ATS in its previous 4 games. Detroit is -three ATS in its previous 3 games.

• Detroit is 7-two ATS as a property underdog beneath Dan Campbell with 5 straight covers.

• Detroit is two-five ATS beneath Dan Campbell when it is not at least a 4-point underdog (12-four ATS when receiving at least 4 points).

• Atlanta has been an underdog in nine straight games getting into this week, the second-longest active streak in the league. This would be the second time beneath Arthur Smith that Atlanta is at least a 4-point favored, the initial considering the fact that Week 16 final season when they won by 4 as 7.five-point favorites vs Detroit.

• Atlanta failed to cover final week for the initial time all season. Atlanta is now six-1 ATS this season, tied with the New York Giants for the most effective mark in the league. Atlanta is also three- ATS at property and four- ATS against teams with losing records.

• Atlanta is 9-three ATS against Carolina considering the fact that 2016.

• Carolina is -six ATS in its previous six road games and four-17 ATS in its final 21 games all round.

• Dallas has covered 3 straight property games. All 4 Dallas property games have gone beneath the total.

• Dallas is 12-three ATS as a favored considering the fact that the begin of final season.

• Since the begin of final season, Dallas is 15-three ATS in conference games, though Chicago is five-12 ATS.

• All seven meetings considering the fact that 2007 have gone more than the total.

• Over the previous 5 seasons, Las Vegas is 1-eight ATS as a road favored like -six ATS in its final six games. Derek Carr is four-11-1 ATS in his profession as a road favored like every single of the aforementioned games.

• Las Vegas games are four-1-1 to the more than, the highest more than percentage in the league. Las Vegas has gone more than the total in 4 straight games and covered 3 straight games.

• New Orleans has gone more than the total in 4 straight games. Its games go more than the total by an typical of ten.four points per game this season, highest in the league.

• New Orleans is -four ATS this season when the line is in between +three and -three.

• Dennis Allen is 16-27 ATS in his profession.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-three.five), Sunday at 1 ET

• Each of the previous eight instances Arizona was a road underdog, it won the game outright (excluding playoffs). That is the longest streak by any group in the Super Bowl era. Arizona is up 13.51 units on the moneyline in that span.

• Arizona is ten-two ATS on the road and 9-two ATS as an underdog considering the fact that the begin of final season.

• Minnesota has covered all six meetings considering the fact that 2011. Last season, Arizona won by one particular point as three.five-point property favorites.

• Minnesota is five-1 outright but just two-four ATS this season like 1-four ATS in its previous 5 games.

• This is the fourth straight game Pittsburgh has been at least a seven-point underdog, the team’s longest such streak considering the fact that 1969. It ties Pittsburgh’s longest streak in the Super Bowl era.

• Philadelphia is five–1 ATS as a property favored beneath Nick Sirianni, like three- ATS this season.

• All 3 Kenny Pickett begins have gone beneath the total (Pittsburgh: two-1 ATS).

• Mike Tomlin is 48-29-four ATS as an underdog like playoffs, but he is just 1-four ATS as a double-digit underdog.

• This is the 19th meeting in between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia in the Super Bowl era, and it is the initial time either group has been at least an eight-point favored.

• Houston is 16-six ATS in the previous 22 meetings with 3 straight covers.

• Tennessee has covered 4 straight games.

• Houston has covered 4 straight division games and eight of its previous ten.

• Davis Mills has been at least a 3-point underdog in every single of his 17 profession begins getting into this week.

• Houston has been an underdog in 12 straight games getting into this week, the longest active streak in the league.

• Kyle Shanahan is 9-three ATS against Sean McVay like playoffs, with six straight covers.

• Sean McVay is 1-four ATS as a property underdog with an typical cover margin of -12.9 points per game.

• Los Angeles games are five-1 to the beneath this season, with 4 straight unders.

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-three), Sunday at four:25 ET

• New York is six-1 ATS, tied with Atlanta for the most effective ATS record this season.

• Brian Daboll is five- outright in his profession as an underdog. That is tied for the longest winning streak as an underdog to start a profession by any coach in the Super Bowl era.

• Indianapolis is 1-three ATS as a favored this season (1-two-1 outright).

• Quarterbacks producing their initial profession begins are eight-12 ATS as favorites considering the fact that 2010. They are six-11 ATS all round considering the fact that the begin of final season. (These notes exclude when two quarterbacks make their initial profession begins against every single other.)

• Indianapolis games are six-1 to the beneath, tied with Tampa Bay and Denver for the highest beneath percentage in the league. 11 of Indianapolis’ previous 12 games have gone beneath the total.

• Aaron Rodgers has never ever been far more than an eight.five-point underdog in his profession. His 234 profession begins (common season and playoffs) are the most by any QB to never ever be a double-digit underdog in the Super Bowl era. It is also the longest streak to start a profession in the Super Bowl era.

• Green Bay is -four ATS in its previous 4 games, matching the longest ATS losing streak of Aaron Rodgers’ profession.

• Green Bay began ten- ATS following a loss beneath Matt LaFleur, but it is now -two ATS in its earlier two games following a loss.

• Matt LaFleur is ten-three ATS as an underdog.

• Josh Allen is 7-two-two ATS as a double-digit favored. Allen is 33-18-four ATS in all common-season games considering the fact that his second season (2019).

• Buffalo is four-1-1 ATS and has the biggest typical cover margin in the league this season (9.92 PPG). Green Bay is two-five ATS and has the worst typical cover margin in the league this season (-7.9 PPG).

• Buffalo is eight-1-1 ATS vs nonconference opponents considering the fact that 2020.

• Prime-time game unders are 14-eight this season and 102-74-three more than the final 4 seasons (.580).

• Cincinnati has covered 5 straight games for the initial time considering the fact that 2019. It has not covered in six straight games considering the fact that 1993.

• All 4 Cleveland property games have gone more than the total.

• Cincinnati is 11-three ATS in the previous 14 meetings.

• Cincinnati has lost 12 straight road prime-time games. However, it has gone five-7 ATS in these games (two- ATS considering the fact that drafting Joe Burrow).

• Prime-time game unders are 14-eight this season and 102-74-three more than the final 4 seasons (.580).