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The Bitcoin price has seen a rapid rally in recent days following the news about BlackRock. The question now is whether the bulls can sustain this upward momentum or if they are starting to lose steam. Interestingly, there appears to be a striking similarity between the 1-day chart of BTC’s current rally and the one from mid-March 2023.
In March, after reaching a one-year high at $25,200, BTC experienced a setback of over 22%. This was due to bearish news surrounding USDC losing its peg to the US dollar and an impending banking crisis. However, rumors of a Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) bailout sparked a surge of 46% in BTC’s price. Notably, this surge occurred in two stages with a one-day breather in between.
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Now, in the present day, Bitcoin finds itself in a similar position once again. After dipping below $25,000 on June 14th amidst bearish news (Tether FUD and SEC lawsuits), BTC was once again saved by bullish news: BlackRock’s filing for a Bitcoin spot ETF.
Since this news, the price of BTC has risen over 20%. However, yesterday saw a slight pause in the rally. The question now is whether we will see a second leg up today, similar to what happened in March, or if Bitcoin has already experienced its double pump (as indicated by the yellow circles). If that is the case, then June 18th could be seen as equivalent to the one-day breather during the March rally.
Data Supports Bullish Case for Bitcoin but Caution Is Advised
Greeks.live analysts suggest that BTC optionsSponsored Product may play an important role today. There are currently 31,000 expiring BTC options with a put-call ratio of 0.73 and a maximum pain point at $27,000. These optionsSponsored Product have a notional value of $930 million. As BTC’s price rises, so does the value of these option positions which increased by almost 50% this week.
The analysts note that “the current BTC and ETH each major term IV inversion is obvious” and highlight that cross-currency IV arbitrage can be cost-effective given that long-term BTC IV being higher than ETH is unsustainable (source).
In addition to this data on optionsSponsored Product activity, Glassnode experts reported yesterday that market participants took profits worth $537 million after Bitcoin’s recent rally – making it the second-largest profit-taking event in the past year.
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